8 lanes to Thika is the same as taking the aorta to your shoulder

Every Kenyan loves tarmac. Indeed in our great land, you cannot prove to anyone that your area is developed, if you have no tarmac. It is the most complete sign of prosperity and development in these parts and especially in these times of CDF and LATF. Nevertheless, I have a theory that, some tarmac is a total waste of money, and further that some is ill advised. The Eldoret International airport, for instance, is a great example of tarmac that was sorely miss-placed, (but that is another article). My focus today is to share my thoughts on the Thika road project which to me is a painful reminder of the intellectual poverty that afflicts our policy makers.

As I mulled over this 27 billion shilling project, several facts came into consideration. These are:

1.       Kenya’s economy relies on Agriculture

2.       Coffee ranks highly among Kenya’s cash crops

3.       The UK, the EU and Uganda, in that order, are Kenya’s biggest markets.

4.       Tourism is our second largest economic activity after agriculture,

5.       Mombasa is our second largest city and is the capital of our tourism sector.

6.       Kisumu, our third largest city, is burning wit
 h untapped potential for both tourism and industry and is the gateway to Uganda.

7.       Thika is 40km away from Nairobi, has maybe 100,000 people and some pineapples

In urban design theory, the human circulation system is used as an analogy for transit infrastructure. Thus, if we take our country to be like the human body, then roads, railways and waterways are like blood vessels; the traffic(people, goods and services) carried by them is the blood, and trade brought about by the traffic is the oxygen and nutrients that keep the body alive, and allows growth and development. The bigger the road is, therefore, the more important a vessel it is to the country’s ‘circulation,’ ergo its economy. In, architecture and urban design we call these major roads ‘arteries’. To further the analogy, transit assumes the same significance in an economy, as the circulation system assumes to the human body. Cut/block an artery and the body dies.

If you agree with that, then, you will agree too that, if we are to develop our economy in any way, then development of our transit network is key. Faster, more efficient links between our products and our markets will go a long way in increasing the value and volume of our exports. Now, if we are selling sandy beaches, wildebeest migrations, coffee, and flowers, and our biggest markets are the UK, the EU and Uganda, then surely our biggest investment in infrastructure should go towards the development of improved links to these markets.

Projects such as a second terminal at JKIA, a high-speed train that links JKIA to the Mara, Tsavo and Mombasa, a new port at Lamu, 10 more train lines to the Uganda border etc etc are all very good ideas that were never looked. 27 billion, yes 27 billion, (out of 110 billion budgeted for infrastructure nationwide) was sunk into Thika road in instead. For the record, I have nothing against Thika town and her people, and in fact, my love for pineapples is legendary. However, it is my considered opinion that this project is a waste of prestigious tarmac.

When complete, Thika road will be the biggest, most sophisticated road that we have ever built in Kenya. But, even at its full force Thika road will only link a town of 100,000 people (exaggerated) to the capital city over a measly 40km. In my experience, roads of more than 4 lanes are used all over the world to link major organs i.e. cities. The autobahn in Germany, for instance, has 6 lanes and is 12200km long spanning the entire country. I dare say, Kenya will be the first country in the world (maybe), to link its capital to a Town of 100,000 people, 40km away via an 8 lane highway. Going back to my analogy above, 8 lanes (biggest road in Kenya) to Thika is the same as taking the aorta to your shoulder.

If I may ask the question, honestly, considering all the above submissions, of what significance is Thika road to the economy of Kenya? What exports will we increase in value or quantity? What does this 40km link between Nairobi and 100,000 people, and some pineapples add to our economy?  Does this addition warrant an investment of 27 billion? Please also consider the opportunity cost of building 8 lanes to Mombasa or 8 lanes to Kisumu instead. Or maybe a much needed second terminal at JKIA.

Now, I have heard people say that the project will solve the traffic issues that Thika road currently suffers. I disagree and agree at the same time. You see traffic jams are not solved by big roads, they are solved by connectivity. In simple terms, traffic must go somewhere. Nairobi’s traffic issue has nothing to do with the size of roads, but the lack of proper continuity in the flow of traffic.  It is true that, this project has some design considerations meant to improve connectivity and that Nairobi will definitely benefit from but, I feel it doesn’t go far enough.

In any case, the only clear effect of this road, aided by an unashamedly dishonest real estate market in our country, is to immediately increase the value of all adjoining pieces of land exponentially. As you know, most of this land is currently classified as agricultural land, and in fact, is among the country’s traditional major coffee production areas. Needless to say, farmers are already uprooting their coffee in order to cash in on the inflated land values being offered by developers such as the guys doing TATU city. You may recall that as discussed above, coffee ranks highly among our cash crops and as such, uprooting of coffee bushes is not a good thing.

In conclusion, therefore, my prediction is that in a matter of a few years all the land between Nairobi and Thika will be filled in by mostly residential areas. The net result of this will be an irreversible loss of arable land, and, the death of the promising urban center that is Thika town. What I am saying, is that in my opinion, because of Thika road, Thika as an urban center and will be swallowed by Nairobi. And if they achieve the 20minute drive from Thika to Nairobi as proposed, then Thika will be at the same level as Buruburu, South B, Loresho, Dagoretti, Karen, Donholm or any other generic Nairobi residential district. Even the pineapples will be quickly replaced by flats.

(Sources: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ke.html, Wikipedia)